
Théo Le Bris
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Théo Le Bris's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-6.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-10.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1902 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1902 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1438
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €10.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +43% (IQR -25% to +109%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | RM | 28 | 1902 | 62% | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1438 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LM | 26 | 1512 | 49% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 1486 | 1335 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LM | 27 | 1448 | 42% | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 1444 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LM | 4 | 57 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1344 | 1335 | 0.86 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Bertolacci Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Nenad Krsticic Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €3.3M | €2.5M | fell |
| Albin Ekdal Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Valentin Eysseric Ligue 1 · 2015 | 23 | €3.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Saša Lukić Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Ilan Kebbal Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Ligue 1 · 2021 | 23 | €5.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Giulio Maggiore Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | Guingamp | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | FC Lorient | Guingamp | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lorient B | FC Lorient | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Lorient U19 | Lorient B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Lorient U17 | FC Lorient U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bréquigny Jgd | FC Lorient U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.