Théo Le Bris

24 yrs · Right midfielder (also LM) · France
FC Lorient · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 170 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.3M – €6.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.4M – €6.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.7M – €10.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.5M – €4.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €6.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.4M – €6.7M
Projected value (24 months)€2.7M – €10.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Théo Le Bris's performance-implied value at EUR 2.4M-6.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-10.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (1902 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 93

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage53th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable23.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.1M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral+6% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1902 (62% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
53 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1420
Opponent strength
1438
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.7M – €10.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +43% (IQR -25% to +109%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC LorientLigue 1RM28190262%220.190.18143814200.88
2023/24FC LorientLigue 1LM26151249%020.120.21148613350.87
2022/23FC LorientLigue 1LM27144842%220.250.34144413960.82
2021/22FC LorientLigue 1LM4572%000.000.25134413350.86

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andrea Bertolacci
Serie A · 2014
23€3.0M€12.0Mrose
Nenad Krsticic
Serie A · 2013
23€3.3M€2.5Mfell
Albin Ekdal
Serie A · 2013
24€4.0M€4.5Mflat
Valentin Eysseric
Ligue 1 · 2015
23€3.5M€7.0Mrose
Saša Lukić
Serie A · 2021
25€5.0M€12.0Mrose
Ilan Kebbal
Ligue 1 · 2022
24€4.5M€3.0Mfell
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Ligue 1 · 2021
23€5.5M€10.0Mrose
Giulio Maggiore
Serie A · 2021
23€7.5M€5.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2025GuingampFC LorientFree / loan€1.5M
3 Feb 2025FC LorientGuingampFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2022Lorient BFC LorientUnknown€400k
1 Jul 2020FC Lorient U19Lorient BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019FC Lorient U17FC Lorient U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Bréquigny JgdFC Lorient U17Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.