Simon Ebonog
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Simon Ebonog's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-9.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-13.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (1764 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 44.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.2M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 32% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1764 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 32%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €13.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +61% (IQR -33% to +126%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1764 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | CM | 30 | 1764 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 1485 | 1361 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | CM | 4 | 17 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1526 | 1351 | 0.87 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ádám Nagy Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nicolò Barella Serie A · 2017 | 20 | €5.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| Vincent Pajot Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Isaac Cofie Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €3.6M | €8.0M | rose |
| Valentin Eysseric Ligue 1 · 2014 | 22 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2021 | 20 | €8.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Sime Vrsaljko Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €7.5M | €13.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | AS Nancy | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €150k |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Le Havre AC | AS Nancy | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Le Havre B | Le Havre AC | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Aug 2021 | Le Havre U17 | Le Havre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | CFF Paris U18 | Le Havre U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | ACBB Youth | CFF Paris U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PSG Youth | ACBB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.