Nicolò Barella
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolò Barella's performance-implied value at EUR 32.5M-92.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.4M-51.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.9M-29.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (2533 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €32.5M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2533 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1508
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.9M – €29.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-96 Elo); relative output up 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -67% to -35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 34 | 2533 | 74% | 3 | 9 | 0.43 | 0.22 | 1508 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 33 | 2498 | 73% | 3 | 6 | 0.32 | 0.16 | 1509 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 37 | 2859 | 84% | 2 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1475 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 35 | 2623 | 77% | 6 | 7 | 0.45 | 0.24 | 1466 | 1738 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2933 | 86% | 3 | 13 | 0.49 | 0.21 | 1466 | 1731 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2901 | 85% | 3 | 9 | 0.37 | 0.19 | 1459 | 1748 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 27 | 2013 | 59% | 1 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 1437 | 1657 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 35 | 3113 | 91% | 1 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1458 | 1310 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 34 | 2965 | 87% | 6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.26 | 1480 | 1323 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 28 | 1911 | 56% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1505 | 1369 | 0.88 |
| 2014/15 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 3 | 130 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1369 | 1355 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 8 | 596 | 0 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 13 | 994 | 0 | 2 | 1724 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 3 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 8 | 468 | 0 | 1 | 1656 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 12 | 997 | 3 | 0 | 1707 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 338 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 496 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 5 | 416 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 528 | 0 | 1 | 1675 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 309 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 6 | 423 | 1 | 1 | 1626 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 360 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 4 | 289 | 1 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 110 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelo Brozović Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Julian Brandt Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Piotr Zielinski Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €35.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Claudio Marchisio Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €31.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Miralem Pjanić Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €70.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Yannick Carrasco Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €40.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Wayne Rooney Premier League · 2015 | 30 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2020 | Cagliari | Inter | €38.5M | €50.0M |
| 31 Aug 2020 | Inter | Cagliari | Free / loan | €50.0M |
| 12 Jul 2019 | Cagliari | Inter | Free / loan | €36.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Como | Cagliari | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 5 Jan 2016 | Cagliari | Como | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Cagliari U19 | Cagliari | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Cagliari Youth | Cagliari U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.