Arthur Piedfort
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arthur Piedfort's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-10.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.68x the positional average in the league (2246 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.4M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 38% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2246 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1348
- Opponent strength
- 1382
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 38%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €10.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; relative output up 98% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -64% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 27 | 2246 | 83% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1382 | 1348 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 20 | 1400 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1426 | 1322 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KVC Westerlo | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 17 | 1475 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 1375 | 1293 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KVC Westerlo | 9 | 746 | 1 | 0 | 1374 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Vlap Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mohamed Diomandé Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €2.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Nicolas Madsen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Musa Çağıran Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Diego Lopes Liga Portugal · 2015 | 21 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iliass Bel Hassani Eredivisie · 2016 | 24 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Lewis Baker Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | PSV U18 | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSV U17 | PSV U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.