Pablo Ibáñez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Ibáñez's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-7.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-4.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-4.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (2248 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2248 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €4.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; changed club; team strength down (-74 Elo); relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -47% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CM | 37 | 2248 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1494 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 28 | 1289 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 1542 | 1484 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 33 | 1142 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 1509 | 1442 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | CM | 25 | 1059 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1490 | 1455 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 4 | 214 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CA Osasuna | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 6 | 327 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmin Kurtic Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Atakan Karazor Bundesliga · 2022 | 26 | €4.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Clément Chantôme Ligue 1 · 2016 | 29 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mato Jajalo Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €1.6M | €800k | fell |
| Tomás Rincón Serie A · 2015 | 27 | €3.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Jim Allevinah Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Carlos Carmona Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | CA Osasuna | Alavés | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Osasuna B | CA Osasuna | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | UD Mutilvera | Osasuna B | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AD San Juan | UD Mutilvera | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | San Juan U19 | AD San Juan | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Mutilvera U19 | San Juan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.