Déron Payne
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Déron Payne's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €220k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 932 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1101
- Opponent strength
- 1335
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €233k – €526k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -17% to +37%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 932 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | RB | 15 | 932 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1335 | 1101 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | RB | 15 | 865 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 1373 | 1066 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | RB | 3 | 109 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1244 | 1213 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Muzek Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 24 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Tercious Malepe Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €300k | €450k | rose |
| Shaun Want Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Maxime Soulas Superliga · 2022 | 23 | €350k | €650k | rose |
| Gerasimos Bakadimas Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Konstantinos Apostolakis Super League 1 · 2022 | 23 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Philip Awuku Super Lig · 2022 | 22 | €225k | €300k | rose |
| Paolo Medina Super League 1 · 2021 | 22 | €300k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | Volendam U21 | FC Volendam | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Koninklijke HFC | Volendam U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Kon. HFC U21 | Koninklijke HFC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Kon. HFC U19 | Kon. HFC U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Kon. HFC Yth. | Kon. HFC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Kon. HFC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.