Telmo Arcanjo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Telmo Arcanjo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.44x the positional average in the league (1244 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1244 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1285
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -40% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1244 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 29 | 1244 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 1285 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RW | 28 | 1324 | 43% | 5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.41 | 1346 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2021/22 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | AM | 10 | 114 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1357 | 1230 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | AM | 14 | 312 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1389 | 1242 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | AM | 2 | 60 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 1489 | 1250 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Cape Verde | 2 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 4 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1363 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konrad Michalak Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €1.7M | €600k | fell |
| Roman Tugarev Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Tornike Okriashvili Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jackson Muleka Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.8M | fell |
| Óscar Barreto Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Luciano Narsingh Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Mateo García Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Colin Kazim-Richards Super Lig · 2014 | 28 | €1.5M | €2.3M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Tondela | Vit. Guimarães | €492k | €1.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Tondela U19 | Tondela | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Belenenses U19 | Tondela U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Belenenses U17 | Belenenses U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Belenenses S15 | Belenenses U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Belenenses Yth | Belenenses S15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sporting Yth. | Belenenses Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.