Killian Phillips
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Killian Phillips's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2816 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 100
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €467k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2816 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1220
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €578k – €2.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-75 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -42% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 33 | 2816 | 95% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 1220 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 2493 | 84% | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1245 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 9 | 302 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 1279 | 1186 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 380 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 181 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Wycombe Wanderers | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 169 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Shrewsbury Town | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Smith Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Vadym Vitenchuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Eder González Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Artem Mylchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €400k | €175k | fell |
| Radosław Murawski Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.4M | €850k | fell |
| Brian De Keersmaecker Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €900k | €3.0M | rose |
| Dálcio Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Pedro Ferreira Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €700k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Palace U21 | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | St. Mirren | Palace U21 | Free / loan | €450k |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Palace U21 | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 May 2024 | Aberdeen FC | Palace U21 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Palace U21 | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €300k |
| 27 Jan 2024 | Wycombe | Palace U21 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Palace U21 | Wycombe | Free / loan | €150k |
| 31 May 2023 | Shrewsbury | Palace U21 | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Palace U21 | Shrewsbury | Free / loan | €75k |
| 11 Jan 2022 | Drogheda United | Palace U23 | €50k | €75k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Drogs Academy | Drogheda United | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Kilbarrack Utd | Drogs Academy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.