Igor Neves
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Igor Neves's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1347 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €323k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1347 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1114
- Opponent strength
- 1197
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €234k – €653k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-72 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -37% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1347 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | ST | 13 | 770 | 29% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.49 | 1197 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | ST | 14 | 577 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 1183 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | ST | 30 | 1657 | 61% | 2 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.54 | 1200 | 1185 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 34 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rostyslav Taranukha Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Bruce Anderson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Denys Bezborodko Premier Liga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Sito Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €450k | €350k | fell |
| Dylan Vente Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €2.5M | rose |
| Konstantinos Doumtsios Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Sotiris Tsiloulis Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €250k | €450k | rose |
| Frederico Duarte Super League 1 · 2023 | 24 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Karpaty Lviv | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rukh Lviv | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Feb 2026 | Karpaty Lviv | Rukh Lviv | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Al-Hamra | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Real Estelí FC | Al-Hamra | Unknown | €300k |
| 18 Jan 2022 | Cancún FC | Real Estelí FC | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Atl. Reynosa | Cancún FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Criciúma U20 | Atl. Reynosa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Trieste-PR | Criciúma U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Athletico U17 | Trieste-PR | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.