Simon Elisor

27 yrs · Striker · France
FC Famalicão · Liga Portugal · Foot: left · Height: 185 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€646k – €2.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€702k – €2.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€764k – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.3M – €1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€646k – €2.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€702k – €2.4M
Projected value (24 months)€764k – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Simon Elisor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.46x the positional average in the league (2055 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 37

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage38th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.9 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €1.4M vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationLow-16% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2055 (67% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.23
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1406
Opponent strength
1326
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€764k – €2.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output down 59% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -56% to -1%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalST33205567%120.130.23132614060.58
2024/25FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalST1559319%410.760.59131613330.51
2023/24FC MetzLigue 1ST1476925%100.120.44144612840.87
2022/23RFC SeraingJupiler Pro LeagueST1358519%100.150.55134311280.58

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rodrigo Pinho
Liga Portugal · 2018
27€1.5M€550kfell
Gegam Kadimyan
Premier Liga · 2018
26€400k€200kfell
Diogo Viana
Liga Portugal · 2018
28€1.0M€800kfell
Roman Tugarev
Premier Liga · 2023
25€1.5M€700kfell
Konrad Michalak
Super Lig · 2023
26€1.7M€600kfell
Georges-Kevin N'Koudou
Super Lig · 2020
25€3.5M€4.2Mrose
Valter Birsa
Serie A · 2015
29€2.0M€4.5Mrose
Tarik Elyounoussi
Super League 1 · 2017
29€1.5M€1.4Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Jan 2025FC MetzFamalicão€900k€800k
30 Jun 2024TroyesFC MetzFree / loan€1.0M
11 Jan 2024FC MetzTroyesFree / loan€1.2M
5 Jul 2023RFC SeraingFC Metz€400k€800k
30 Jun 2023Stade LavalloisRFC SeraingFree / loan€800k
5 Jan 2023RFC SeraingStade LavalloisFree / loan€550k
11 Jul 2022AC AjaccioRFC SeraingUnknown€800k
30 Jun 2022FC VillefrancheAC AjaccioFree / loan€800k
16 Jul 2021AC AjaccioFC VillefrancheFree / loan€300k
30 Jun 2021FC Sète 34AC AjaccioFree / loan€300k
26 Jan 2021AC AjaccioFC Sète 34Free / loan€300k
1 Jul 2020AC Ajaccio BAC AjaccioUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Istres FCAC Ajaccio BFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Without ClubIstres FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2018Martigues BWithout ClubUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Martigues U19Martigues BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Istres FC U17Martigues U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Istres JugendIstres FC U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.