
Simon Elisor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Simon Elisor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.46x the positional average in the league (2055 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 38th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.4M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2055 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €764k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo); relative output down 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -56% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | ST | 33 | 2055 | 67% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 1326 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | ST | 15 | 593 | 19% | 4 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.59 | 1316 | 1333 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | ST | 14 | 769 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 1446 | 1284 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RFC Seraing | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 13 | 585 | 19% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.55 | 1343 | 1128 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Pinho Liga Portugal · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €550k | fell |
| Gegam Kadimyan Premier Liga · 2018 | 26 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Diogo Viana Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Roman Tugarev Premier Liga · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Konrad Michalak Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €1.7M | €600k | fell |
| Georges-Kevin N'Koudou Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €3.5M | €4.2M | rose |
| Valter Birsa Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €2.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Tarik Elyounoussi Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.4M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2025 | FC Metz | Famalicão | €900k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Troyes | FC Metz | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 11 Jan 2024 | FC Metz | Troyes | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 5 Jul 2023 | RFC Seraing | FC Metz | €400k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Stade Lavallois | RFC Seraing | Free / loan | €800k |
| 5 Jan 2023 | RFC Seraing | Stade Lavallois | Free / loan | €550k |
| 11 Jul 2022 | AC Ajaccio | RFC Seraing | Unknown | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Villefranche | AC Ajaccio | Free / loan | €800k |
| 16 Jul 2021 | AC Ajaccio | FC Villefranche | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Sète 34 | AC Ajaccio | Free / loan | €300k |
| 26 Jan 2021 | AC Ajaccio | FC Sète 34 | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AC Ajaccio B | AC Ajaccio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Istres FC | AC Ajaccio B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Without Club | Istres FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Martigues B | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Martigues U19 | Martigues B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Istres FC U17 | Martigues U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Istres Jugend | Istres FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.