Denys Ndukve

26 yrs · Striker · Ukraine
NK Veres Rivne · Premier Liga · Foot: left · Height: 180 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€600k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€242k – €612k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€277k – €620k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€278k – €781k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€334k – €378k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€242k – €612k
Model value (performance-implied)€277k – €620k
Projected value (24 months)€278k – €781k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Denys Ndukve's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1317 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 70

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average6.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.3 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €446k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €600k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1317 (49% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.41
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.53
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
6 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1087
Opponent strength
1173
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€278k – €781k

Trajectory drivers: changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -40% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1317 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (ATT)
Relative output kept
87%–104%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
94%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26NK Veres RivnePremier LigaST20131749%510.410.52117310870.25
2024/25Vorskla PoltavaPremier LigaST28126447%420.430.66118510880.28
2023/24FK Polissya ZhytomyrPremier LigaST1040815%100.220.49126212650.34

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupNK Veres Rivne18310—
2024/25Ukrainian CupVorskla Poltava16000—
2023/24Ukrainian CupPFC Zvyagel323010—
2023/24Ukrainian CupFK Polissya Zhytomyr11100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rostyslav Taranukha
Premier Liga · 2024
27€300k€200kfell
Bruce Anderson
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€550k€300kfell
Hadi Sacko
Super Lig · 2021
27€775k€125kfell
Vladyslav Vakula
Premier Liga · 2024
25€300k€200kfell
Bogdan Boychuk
Premier Liga · 2024
28€500k€500kflat
Scott Tiffoney
Scottish Premiership · 2024
26€400k€250kfell
Jonathan Morsay
Super League 1 · 2023
26€400k€400kflat
Maximiliano Lovera
Super League 1 · 2023
24€800k€700kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Veres RivneVorskla PoltavaFree / loan€600k
4 Jul 2025Vorskla PoltavaVeres RivneFree / loan€400k
9 Jul 2024PolissyaVorskla PoltavaFree / loan€300k
26 Jan 2024PFC ZvyagelPolissyaFree / loanData unavailable
21 Jul 2023ChaykaPFC ZvyagelFree / loanData unavailable
2 Sept 2022Metalist 1925ChaykaFree / loanData unavailable
31 Dec 2021FC KramatorskMetalist 1925Free / loan€50k
22 Jul 2021Metalist 1925FC KramatorskFree / loan€50k
29 Aug 2020Avang. KharkivMetalist 1925Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2020MSMAvang. KharkivFree / loanData unavailable
19 Feb 2020Avang. KharkivMSMFree / loanData unavailable
9 Sept 2019UnknownAvang. KharkivUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2019Metalist UniorUnknownUnknownData unavailable
1 Apr 2018UnknownMetalist UniorUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Arsenal Kh U17UnknownUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Denys Ndukve · MoneyballAI