Turpal-Ali Ibishev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Turpal-Ali Ibishev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1313 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1338
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €585k – €2.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -46% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1313 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CB | 22 | 1313 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1338 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CB | 17 | 1472 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1301 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | CB | 3 | 193 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1300 | 1273 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 432 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | Druzhba Maikop | 2 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick William Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Aleksandr Filin Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Nikolay Rasskazov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Manolis Bertos Super League 1 · 2013 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Rubin Seigers Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Dakonam Djené Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €800k | €25.0M | rose |
| Ilya Agapov Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Yevgen Opanasenko Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €700k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2023 | Druzhba Maikop | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €75k |
| 5 Jul 2023 | Akhmat Grozny | Druzhba Maikop | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Akhmat II | Akhmat Grozny | Unknown | €125k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Akademia Ramzan | Akhmat II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.