Makan Aïko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Makan Aïko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (1513 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €490k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1513 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1189
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €471k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -2% (IQR -13% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1513 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | LW | 18 | 1059 | 35% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 1326 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | LW | 13 | 454 | 15% | 2 | 2 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 1349 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | LW | 22 | 1186 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.36 | 1342 | 1211 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 44 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krisztián Németh Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €900k | €1.4M | rose |
| Devante Cole Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Craig Goodwin Eredivisie · 2017 | 26 | €700k | €750k | flat |
| Patrick Joosten Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €800k | €325k | fell |
| Michael Breij Eredivisie · 2022 | 25 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Kikas Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Alimami Gory Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €950k | €800k | flat |
| Renato Santos Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Tondela | Without Club | Unknown | €900k |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Fortuna Sittard | Tondela | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Le Mans FC | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Le Mans FC B | Le Mans FC | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Le Mans FC U19 | Le Mans FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Le Mans FC U17 | Le Mans FC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.