Fernando Henrique
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fernando Henrique's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1178 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €318k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1178 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1068
- Opponent strength
- 1188
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €337k – €803k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -17% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1178 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | DM | 20 | 1178 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1188 | 1068 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiy Kosovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Oleg Slobodyan Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Muharrem Jashari Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
| Victor Loturi Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €1.2M | rose |
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Scott Allardice Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| James Brown Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €325k | €325k | flat |
| Cammy MacPherson Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €400k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2025 | Cruzeiro | FC Oleksandriya | Free / loan | €800k |
| 27 Jul 2025 | CRB | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €800k |
| 28 Mar 2025 | Cruzeiro | CRB | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Mar 2025 | Portuguesa | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Cruzeiro | Portuguesa | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jun 2024 | Vila Nova FC | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Mar 2024 | Cruzeiro | Vila Nova FC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 6 Jan 2023 | Grêmio | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Mar 2021 | Grêmio U20 | Grêmio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.