Derry Scherhant
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Derry Scherhant's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-13.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.5M-13.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-17.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1292 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 58
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.1M vs market €7.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1292 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1537
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €17.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -45% to -14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1292 league minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | LW | 31 | 1292 | 42% | 5 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 1537 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LW | 10 | 279 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 1518 | 1354 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 12 | 384 | 1 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 153 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mehdi Carcela-González Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €4.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Vitinha Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €14.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Alassane Pléa Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €12.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Khouma Babacar Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Ronny Rodelin Ligue 1 · 2013 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Riccardo Sottil Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Vladimir Dyadyun Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Romain Del Castillo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €4.8M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Hertha BSC | Freiburg | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hertha BSC II | Hertha BSC | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hertha BSC U19 | Hertha BSC II | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Berliner SC U19 | Hertha BSC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | TeBe Berlin U19 | Berliner SC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vik. Berlin U17 | TeBe Berlin U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Vi. Berlin Yth. | Vik. Berlin U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | TeBe Youth | Vi. Berlin Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | SCC Berlin Jgd. | TeBe Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.