Facundo Cáseres
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Facundo Cáseres's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-3.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.35x the positional average in the league (2200 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.4M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2200 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €3.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; team strength up (+68 Elo); role change CM -> DM; relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -1% (IQR -25% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | DM | 29 | 2200 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1311 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 20 | 1410 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1358 | 1235 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SC Farense | Liga Portugal | CM | 21 | 1111 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1400 | 1246 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrus Boumal Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €1.8M | €850k | fell |
| Alhassan Wakaso Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Vítor Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2022 | 25 | €1.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Yevgen Makarenko Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 27 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Maikel Kieftenbeld Eredivisie · 2014 | 24 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Srdjan Mijailovic Super Lig · 2016 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Pêpê Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Roman Emeljanov Premier Liga · 2016 | 24 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2024 | Farense | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | Vélez Sarsfield | Farense | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | NK Istra | Vélez Sarsfield | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 21 Aug 2021 | Vélez Sarsfield | NK Istra | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Vélez II | Vélez Sarsfield | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Vélez U20 | Vélez II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.