Marvin Senaya
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marvin Senaya's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 48th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.7M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1785 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -5% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1785 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | RB | 25 | 1785 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1497 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RB | 10 | 220 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1546 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2139 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1485 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | RB | 1 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1487 | 1441 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ghana | 3 | 267 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Iglesias Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Liberato Cacace Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Rasmus Carstensen Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Diego Contento Ligue 1 · 2015 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Mitchell Dijks Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Enock Kwateng Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| João Ferreira Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Eray Cömert Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | R. Strasbourg | AJ Auxerre | €1.5M | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lausanne-Sport | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 6 Feb 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Lausanne-Sport | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Rodez AF | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €900k |
| 17 Aug 2022 | R. Strasbourg | Rodez AF | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Sochaux | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | R. Strasbourg | FC Sochaux | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | R. Strasbourg B | R. Strasbourg | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Strasbourg U19 | R. Strasbourg B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Strasbourg U17 | Strasbourg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Mulhouse Jgd. | Strasbourg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.