Javi Guerra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Javi Guerra's performance-implied value at EUR 12.3M-42.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.1M-32.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.6M-36.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.89x the positional average in the league (2070 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.2M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2070 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.6M – €36.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output up 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -37% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2070 | 61% | 4 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 1492 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2593 | 76% | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 1528 | 1463 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2502 | 73% | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1490 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 10 | 603 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 1519 | 1444 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 289 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 76 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 4 | 232 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Svanberg Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Anton Stach Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €13.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Alan Dzagoev Premier Liga · 2013 | 23 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Hugo Guillamón Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €14.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Borna Sosa Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Naby Keïta Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €65.0M | €33.5M | fell |
| Orel Mangala Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €22.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Leon Goretzka Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Valencia U18 | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Villarreal Yth. | Valencia U18 | €800k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.