Mattias Svanberg
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mattias Svanberg's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-4.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-7.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.49x the positional average in the league (854 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 62.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 854 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €7.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-66 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -65% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 854 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 854 | 28% | 3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 1509 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 20 | 1223 | 40% | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1532 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 1726 | 56% | 1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 1506 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 1834 | 60% | 4 | 6 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1528 | 1525 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2574 | 75% | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 1494 | 1395 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 34 | 1862 | 54% | 5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 1462 | 1380 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | AM | 25 | 1050 | 31% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 1484 | 1365 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CM | 23 | 1175 | 34% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 1455 | 1367 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 31 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 203 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 143 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 229 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edu Expósito Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kristijan Jakic Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Florian Neuhaus Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jean-Eudes Aholou Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Unai López Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mohamed Fares Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €4.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Alexandru Maxim Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Saponara Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €8.5M | €1.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2022 | Bologna | Wolfsburg | €9.5M | €15.0M |
| 5 Jul 2018 | Malmö | Bologna | €4.5M | €750k |
| 27 Jul 2015 | Malmö FF U19 | Malmö | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Malmö FF U17 | Malmö FF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Bunkeflo | Malmö FF U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.