Leon Goretzka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leon Goretzka's performance-implied value at EUR 11.2M-28.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.3M-14.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-7.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.62x the positional average in the league (1954 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 5
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.8M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1954 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1448
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €7.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; team strength up (+99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -75% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 31 | 1954 | 64% | 5 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 1448 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1315 | 43% | 4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 1486 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2243 | 73% | 6 | 9 | 0.60 | 0.26 | 1506 | 1715 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 27 | 1737 | 57% | 3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 1521 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 19 | 1405 | 46% | 3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 1480 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1706 | 56% | 5 | 6 | 0.58 | 0.19 | 1515 | 1898 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1513 | 49% | 6 | 9 | 0.89 | 0.33 | 1558 | 1892 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2020 | 66% | 8 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.18 | 1482 | 1839 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1983 | 65% | 4 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.21 | 1509 | 1618 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CM | 30 | 2567 | 84% | 5 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 1535 | 1556 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 1993 | 65% | 1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 1505 | 1543 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CM | 10 | 381 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1479 | 1535 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | RM | 25 | 1489 | 49% | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1524 | 1622 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 185 | 0 | 0 | 1684 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 119 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 12 | 839 | 1 | 1 | 1673 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 105 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 10 | 761 | 0 | 1 | 1654 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 9 | 607 | 2 | 4 | 1733 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 4 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 468 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2021/22 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1713 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 439 | 2 | 2 | 1609 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Super Cup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 99 | 1 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 8 | 522 | 1 | 1 | 1666 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 350 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 349 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 325 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2018/19 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 215 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 667 | 3 | 1 | 1559 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 565 | 0 | 1 | 1475 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1891 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1780 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sami Khedira Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €28.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Luka Modrić Laliga · 2018 | 33 | €25.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Michael Essien Laliga · 2013 | 31 | €10.0M | €600k | fell |
| Toni Kroos Laliga · 2022 | 32 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jordan Henderson Premier League · 2022 | 32 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Arturo Vidal Laliga · 2019 | 32 | €15.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Davide Zappacosta Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Bayern Munich | Without Club | Unknown | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Schalke 04 | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 2 Jul 2013 | VfL Bochum | FC Schalke 04 | €3.3M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | VfL Bochum U19 | VfL Bochum | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2011 | VfL Bochum U17 | VfL Bochum U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | VfL Bochum Yth. | VfL Bochum U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | WSV Bochum Yth. | VfL Bochum Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.