Serginho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Serginho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.36x the positional average in the league (2582 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2582 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1329
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 42 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -53% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 2582 | 84% | 4 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 1329 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | CM | 29 | 1297 | 42% | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 1374 | 1276 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 403 | 0 | 1 | 1307 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thom Haye Eredivisie · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fernando Costanza Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Andrew Hjulsager Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mustafa Saymak Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €725k | fell |
| Mathieu Maertens Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Bruno Costa Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| André Poko Super Lig · 2017 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.1M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2023 | Oliveirense | Santa Clara | €250k | €600k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Felgueiras | Oliveirense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Joane | Felgueiras | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | CD Ponte | Joane | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Moreirense U19 | CD Ponte | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Vitória SC U17 | Moreirense U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2015 | Vitória SC U15 | Vitória SC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sandinenses Y15 | Vitória SC U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Vitória SC Yth | Sandinenses Y15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.