Oscar Højlund
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oscar Højlund's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-8.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.1M-23.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-25.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (1091 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 57.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.6M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1091 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1509
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €25.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output up 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +71% (IQR -30% to +193%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1091 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1091 | 36% | 1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1509 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CM | 20 | 713 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1478 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | CM | 10 | 389 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 1265 | 1517 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 227 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 6 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1875 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico González Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Andrey Santos Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €15.5M | €60.0M | rose |
| Mateo Kovacic Serie A · 2014 | 20 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Nico Melamed Laliga · 2022 | 21 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Yann M'Vila Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Kang-in Lee Laliga · 2021 | 20 | €10.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Kevin Paredes Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2024 | Copenhagen | Frankfurt | €1.4M | €700k |
| 2 Sept 2023 | Copenhagen U19 | Copenhagen | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Hörsholm | FCK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.