Andrey Santos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrey Santos's performance-implied value at EUR 18.8M-47.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 29.0M-52.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.7M-50.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.44x the positional average in the league (1255 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €41.3M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 5% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1255 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1562
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 5%
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.7M – €50.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 57 pts; changed club; team strength up (+109 Elo); league level up (+149 Elo); relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +7% (IQR -17% to +39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1255 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 27 | 1255 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1562 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 32 | 2857 | 93% | 10 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1459 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CM | 11 | 831 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1463 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | DM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1810 | 1428 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 414 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 306 | 0 | 2 | 1674 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheick Doucouré Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €35.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jacob Ramsey Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Boubacar Kamara Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Angeliño Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €17.5M | €30.0M | rose |
| Victor Wanyama Premier League · 2014 | 23 | €14.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €14.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Charles De Ketelaere Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Mason Mount Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €60.0M | €28.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Chelsea | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Chelsea | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 3 Jan 2024 | Nott'm Forest | Chelsea | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 25 Aug 2023 | Chelsea | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Vasco da Gama | Chelsea | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Mar 2023 | Chelsea | Vasco da Gama | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Vasco da Gama | Chelsea | €12.5M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Vasco U20 | Vasco da Gama | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.