Ilias Sebaoui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilias Sebaoui's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-4.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-5.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (2504 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2504 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1401
- Opponent strength
- 1375
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €5.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 29 pts; changed club; team strength up (+149 Elo); league level up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -43% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 30 | 2504 | 93% | 4 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 1375 | 1401 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 30 | 1941 | 63% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 1300 | 1252 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Beerschot VA | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 10 | 642 | 21% | 3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 1372 | 1131 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Sint-Truidense VV | 10 | 773 | 1 | 2 | 1461 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 209 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebá Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €3.2M | €4.5M | rose |
| Oussama Idrissi Eredivisie · 2019 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Maksim Kanunnikov Premier Liga · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ali Gholizadeh Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €3.7M | €1.8M | fell |
| Jimmy Durmaz Super Lig · 2014 | 25 | €3.2M | €3.8M | flat |
| Mousa Tamari Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Olivier Deman Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Morlaye Sylla Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Feyenoord | Sint-Truiden | €1.0M | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Heerenveen | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 23 Jul 2024 | Feyenoord | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Dordrecht | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Jul 2023 | Feyenoord | FC Dordrecht | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Beerschot VA | Feyenoord | Unknown | €300k |
| 4 Feb 2022 | Beerschot U21 | Beerschot VA | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Beerschot U18 | Beerschot U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Beersch. Youth | Beerschot U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Waasland-Beveren | Beersch. Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Beerschot Yth | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.