Marvin Elimbi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marvin Elimbi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-7.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €4.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2432 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €7.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -20% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2432 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1337 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 11 | 433 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1356 | 1235 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe Sandler Eredivisie · 2018 | 21 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Jackson Porozo Liga Portugal · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.3M | flat |
| Alexis Duarte Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Zinho Vanheusden Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Ibrahima Bamba Liga Portugal · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Nélson Monte Liga Portugal · 2018 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Enea Mihaj Liga Portugal · 2023 | 25 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Cameron Humphreys Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2024 | Torreense | Gil Vicente | €500k | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | R. Strasbourg | Torreense | Unknown | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | US Orléans | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 2 Jul 2022 | R. Strasbourg | US Orléans | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | R. Strasbourg B | R. Strasbourg | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Strasbourg U19 | R. Strasbourg B | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Strasbourg U17 | Strasbourg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.