Rafik Belghali
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rafik Belghali's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-6.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.9M-10.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-10.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2168 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2168 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1280
- Opponent strength
- 1519
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €10.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-69 Elo); league level up (+96 Elo); role change RB -> RM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -50% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | RM | 26 | 1928 | 56% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 1519 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 3 | 240 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1361 | 1370 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 26 | 1562 | 58% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1363 | 1350 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 7 | 260 | 10% | 1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.25 | 1381 | 1367 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Algeria | 5 | 375 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Algeria | 3 | 251 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giulio Maggiore Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Seko Fofana Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €9.5M | €9.5M | flat |
| Yassine Kechta Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Saša Lukić Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Saphir Taïder Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Enzo Le Fée Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Joan González Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €6.0M | €800k | fell |
| Suat Serdar Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €9.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2025 | KV Mechelen | Hellas Verona | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Lommel SK | KV Mechelen | €400k | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Lommel SK U21 | Lommel SK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Lommel SK U18 | Lommel SK U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Unknown | Lommel SK U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Zulte W. Youth | Unknown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Lierse SK Yth. | Zulte W. Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | PSV Yth. | Lierse SK Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | STVV Youth | PSV Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.