Ronaldo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ronaldo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (2024 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -29% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2024 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.45
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1301
- Opponent strength
- 1346
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -43% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | RW | 26 | 2024 | 75% | 6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 1346 | 1301 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | RW | 29 | 2362 | 87% | 4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 1294 | 1342 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Rostov | Premier Liga | RW | 12 | 1027 | 38% | 6 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.58 | 1335 | 1317 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 3 | 73 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 7 | 488 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Levski Sofia | 6 | 450 | 2 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Rostov | 2 | 119 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberth Elis Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Nill De Pauw Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Mimoun Mahi Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Ilombe Mboyo Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Wout Weghorst Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €2.8M | €20.0M | rose |
| Muhammet Demir Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €5.0M | €500k | fell |
| Idriss Saadi Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €2.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Tobias Lauritsen Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2024 | Levski Sofia | Rostov | €2.0M | €1.4M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | EC Bahia | Levski Sofia | €180k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | São Caetano | EC Bahia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.