Alessandro Circati
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alessandro Circati's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-11.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.2M-17.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.9M-25.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €13.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2666 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1508
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.9M – €25.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 62 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -21% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2666 | 78% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1508 | 1374 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1596 | 1342 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Australia | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Costa Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Abdou Diallo Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Luca Netz Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Calum Chambers Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Lorenz Assignon Premier League · 2024 | 24 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Youcef Atal Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Kevin Bonifazi Serie A · 2019 | 23 | €5.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Jonjoe Kenny Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €9.5M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Parma U19 | Parma | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Parma U18 | Parma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 25 Feb 2021 | Perth Glory U21 | Parma U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Perth SC Youth | Perth Glory U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.