Luca Netz
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luca Netz's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-6.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.2M-12.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-11.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1293 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1481
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €11.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -53% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1293 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LB | 15 | 938 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1493 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | LB | 7 | 355 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1628 | 1635 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LB | 24 | 959 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1507 | 1427 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LB | 30 | 2232 | 73% | 0 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 1512 | 1435 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LB | 20 | 698 | 23% | 1 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.31 | 1557 | 1499 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LM | 24 | 1380 | 45% | 0 | 4 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1560 | 1535 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | LB | 11 | 301 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 1496 | 1446 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 381 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 97 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 60 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Schlupp Premier League · 2017 | 25 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Jordan Torunarigha Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jan Kirchhoff Bundesliga · 2013 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alberto Botía Laliga · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Chris Richards Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Adrià Pedrosa Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €9.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Yannik Keitel Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kasim Adams Bundesliga · 2019 | 24 | €7.0M | €1.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Mönchengladbach | Nott'm Forest | €2.5M | €6.0M |
| 6 Aug 2021 | Hertha BSC | Mönchengladbach | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 15 Jul 2020 | Hertha BSC U19 | Hertha BSC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hertha BSC U17 | Hertha BSC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hertha BSC Yth. | Hertha BSC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FSV Bernau Jgd. | Hertha BSC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.