
Lorenz Assignon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lorenz Assignon's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-10.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.6M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1093 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1567
- Opponent strength
- 1439
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €10.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; changed club; team strength up (+116 Elo); relative output down 82% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -51% to +62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1093 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | RB | 24 | 1093 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1439 | 1567 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2363 | 77% | 3 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.23 | 1447 | 1450 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | RB | 15 | 1238 | 36% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.27 | 1575 | 1366 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 14 | 1013 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 1465 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 12 | 252 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 1444 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RB | 20 | 601 | 18% | 0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 1384 | 1581 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 719 | 1 | 3 | 1459 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1760 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 361 | 1 | 0 | 1491 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 5 | 297 | 1 | 0 | 1471 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €9.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Nicolò Casale Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €14.0M | €3.8M | fell |
| Nicolas N'Koulou Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Philipp Wollscheid Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €8.5M | €6.5M | fell |
| Andoni Gorosabel Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Kyle Walker Premier League · 2015 | 25 | €13.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Renan Lodi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 26 | €18.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Warmed Omari Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Stade Rennais | Stuttgart | €12.0M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Burnley | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Stade Rennais | Burnley | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | SC Bastia | Rennes B | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Rennes B | SC Bastia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rennes U19 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.