Lorenz Assignon

26 yrs · Right-back · France
VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€9.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.2M – €9.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.1M – €7.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.7M – €10.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.8M – €3.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.2M – €9.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.1M – €7.8M
Projected value (24 months)€3.7M – €10.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€9.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lorenz Assignon's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-7.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-9.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-10.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 17

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average70.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €7.6M vs market €9.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €12.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1093 (36% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
70 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1567
Opponent strength
1439
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.7M – €10.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 42 pts; changed club; team strength up (+116 Elo); relative output down 82% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -51% to +62%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1093 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26VfB StuttgartBundesligaRB24109336%000.000.04143915670.94
2024/25Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RB32236377%340.270.23144714500.88
2023/24Burnley FCPremier LeagueRB15123836%120.220.27157513661.14
2023/24Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RB14101333%120.270.17146515070.87
2022/23Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RB122527%010.360.16144415620.82
2021/22Stade Rennais FCLigue 1RB2060118%020.300.15138415810.86

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueVfB Stuttgart9719131459
2025/26Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart330000—
2025/26Franz Beckenbauer SupercupVfB Stuttgart19001760
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC5361101491
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC5297101471
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingStade Rennais FC18001506

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Juan Jesus
Serie A · 2016
25€9.0M€13.0Mrose
Nicolò Casale
Serie A · 2024
26€14.0M€3.8Mfell
Nicolas N'Koulou
Ligue 1 · 2017
27€7.5M€20.0Mrose
Philipp Wollscheid
Bundesliga · 2014
25€8.5M€6.5Mfell
Andoni Gorosabel
Laliga · 2023
27€9.0M€5.0Mfell
Kyle Walker
Premier League · 2015
25€13.0M€30.0Mrose
Renan Lodi
Ligue 1 · 2024
26€18.0M€11.0Mfell
Warmed Omari
Ligue 1 · 2023
23€9.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025Stade RennaisStuttgart€12.0M€9.0M
30 Jun 2024BurnleyStade RennaisFree / loan€10.0M
1 Feb 2024Stade RennaisBurnleyFree / loan€10.0M
1 Jul 2021Rennes BStade RennaisUnknown€500k
30 Jun 2021SC BastiaRennes BFree / loan€500k
31 Jan 2021Rennes BSC BastiaFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Rennes U19Rennes BUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.