Sorriso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sorriso's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-8.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (2804 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2804 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1326
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €8.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 25 pts; team strength up (+73 Elo); role change RW -> LW; relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -43% to +23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | LW | 33 | 2804 | 92% | 5 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 1326 | 1406 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RW | 29 | 2034 | 66% | 8 | 5 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1346 | 1333 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | LW | 15 | 853 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.40 | 1363 | 1321 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morlaye Sylla Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Ali Gholizadeh Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 25 | €3.7M | €1.8M | fell |
| Mousa Tamari Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Anders Dreyer Superliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Jelle Vossen Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Oussama Idrissi Eredivisie · 2019 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2016 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mike Havenaar Eredivisie · 2014 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | RB Bragantino | Famalicão | €1.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Famalicão | RB Bragantino | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | RB Bragantino | Famalicão | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Juventude | RB Bragantino | €900k | €500k |
| 1 Mar 2021 | Juventude U20 | Juventude | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.