Lucas Beraldo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Beraldo's performance-implied value at EUR 15.6M-48.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-31.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.3M-41.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €24.4M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1571 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1422
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.3M – €41.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 106% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR +3% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1571 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 20 | 1571 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 1422 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2011 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1437 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 1010 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 1481 | 1700 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1816 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 141 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 408 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serge Aurier Ligue 1 · 2017 | 25 | €15.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Abdou Diallo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Piero Hincapié Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Mamadou Sakho Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €15.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2014 | 20 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Benjamin Mendy Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €13.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Antonio Rüdiger Serie A · 2017 | 24 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| João Mário Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | São Paulo | PSG | €20.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | São Paulo U20 | São Paulo | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Piracicaba U20 | São Paulo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.