Antonio Rüdiger

33 yrs · Centre-back · Germany
Real Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.1M – €5.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.3M – €15.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.8M – €3.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.5M – €13.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.1M – €5.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.3M – €15.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.8M – €3.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Antonio Rüdiger's performance-implied value at EUR 4.3M-15.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite97.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.7M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-65% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1491 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1745
Opponent strength
1477
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.8M – €3.7M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; relative output up 74% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -70% to -59%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1491 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real MadridLaligaCB18149144%100.060.04147717450.95
2024/25Real MadridLaligaCB29229167%010.040.02149017640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaCB33270779%110.070.04146918671.00
2022/23Real MadridLaligaCB33241170%100.040.03148817370.98
2021/22Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB34303689%320.150.08155717371.17
2020/21Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB19171050%100.050.04155817351.19
2019/20Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB20171050%200.110.07159016531.14
2018/19Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB33287484%100.030.03154217501.22
2017/18Chelsea FCPremier LeagueCB27233668%210.120.07153716671.15
2016/17Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ACB26220665%020.080.05146817110.88
2015/16Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ACB30263477%200.070.06148416650.95
2014/15VfB StuttgartBundesligaCB19160152%010.060.07152714201.03
2013/14VfB StuttgartBundesligaCB30269488%200.070.08156013981.03
2012/13VfB StuttgartBundesligaCB1699933%000.000.04147314641.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid7630001764
2025/26World CupGermany315200—
2025/26SupercopaReal Madrid169001704
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid131188201694
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Madrid435110—
2024/25SupercopaReal Madrid2180001621
2024/25Uefa Super CupReal Madrid190001709
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid121039021718
2023/24SupercopaReal Madrid2210101691
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Madrid112000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10676101705
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Madrid536600—
2022/23SupercopaReal Madrid2210001601
2022/23Uefa Super CupReal Madrid15001595
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC9840121657
2021/22Fa CupChelsea FC551000—
2021/22Uefa Super CupChelsea FC1120001689
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC11922011692
2020/21Fa CupChelsea FC431500—
2019/20Fa CupChelsea FC434800—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC2180001671
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueChelsea FC4360001530
2018/19Fa CupChelsea FC218000—
2018/19Community ShieldChelsea FC190001831
2017/18Fa CupChelsea FC657000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC6388001738
2017/18Community ShieldChelsea FC111001681
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma5377011559
2016/17Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma436001—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma6540001732

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marcos Alonso
Laliga · 2023
33€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Bacary Sagna
Premier League · 2017
34€4.0M€500kfell
Juanfran Torres
Laliga · 2018
33€5.0M€2.0Mfell
Stefan de Vrij
Serie A · 2024
32€7.0M€3.0Mfell
Aleksandr Anyukov
Premier Liga · 2014
32€3.5M€1.0Mfell
Giorgio Chiellini
Serie A · 2016
32€13.0M€10.0Mfell
Aïssa Mandi
Laliga · 2022
31€6.0M€1.8Mfell
Branislav Ivanovic
Premier Liga · 2017
33€5.0M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022ChelseaReal MadridFree / loan€40.0M
9 Jul 2017RomaChelsea€35.0M€25.0M
1 Jul 2016StuttgartRoma€9.0M€12.0M
30 Jun 2016RomaStuttgartFree / loan€12.0M
19 Aug 2015StuttgartRomaFree / loan€10.0M
1 Jul 2012Stuttgart IIStuttgartUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2011Stuttgart U19Stuttgart IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Feb 2011B. Dortmund U19Stuttgart U19€38kData unavailable
1 Jul 2010B. Dortmund U17B. Dortmund U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Zehlendorf Yth.B. Dortmund U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Neuk. SF Yth.Zehlendorf Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Tasmania Yth.Neuk. SF Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2002Sperber Yth.Tasmania Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.