Carlos Paraco
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Paraco's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (2106 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 59
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.6M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2106 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1219
- Opponent strength
- 1139
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €775k – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -34% to +17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 2106 | 78% | 8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 1139 | 1219 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherif Ndiaye Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.0M | €2.2M | flat |
| David Akintola Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €2.4M | €2.4M | flat |
| Benjamin Tetteh Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Juan José Perea Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Mathias Kristensen Superliga · 2019 | 22 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Paolo Fernandes Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Carlo Holse Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €3.2M | €7.0M | rose |
| Braian Samudio Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €1.6M | €1.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | Metropolitanos | Kryvbas | €250k | €400k |
| 3 Feb 2024 | Táchira | Metropolitanos | Free / loan | €25k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Táchira U20 | Táchira | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.