Carlo Holse
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlo Holse's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-3.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-8.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.48x the positional average in the league (2610 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 28.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.4M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1310
- Opponent strength
- 1277
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €8.9M
Trajectory drivers: role change AM -> CM; relative output up 89% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -38% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | CM | 31 | 2610 | 85% | 8 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 1277 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | AM | 34 | 2876 | 89% | 7 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 1290 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | RW | 33 | 2787 | 81% | 5 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 1298 | 1217 | 0.45 |
| 2019/20 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | RW | 9 | 361 | 15% | 0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 1227 | 1474 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | Esbjerg fB | Superliga | LW | 6 | 537 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1258 | 1239 | 0.44 |
| 2018/19 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | RW | 10 | 209 | 9% | 1 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.28 | 1282 | 1499 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | RW | 6 | 71 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 1305 | 1453 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Samsunspor | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1401 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rosenborg Ballklub | 4 | 390 | 1 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 284 | 0 | 0 | 1403 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1269 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 155 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 144 | 1 | 0 | 1339 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | Esbjerg fB | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 1404 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 90 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozan Tufan Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €11.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Anastasios Bakasetas Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Daniil Fomin Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €9.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €7.5M | €4.5M | fell |
| Kerim Mrabti Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Lucas Vera Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Emre Kılınç Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jakob Johansson Super League 1 · 2016 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Rosenborg BK | Samsunspor | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Copenhagen | Rosenborg BK | €560k | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Esbjerg fB | Copenhagen | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Copenhagen | Esbjerg fB | Free / loan | €400k |
| 24 Aug 2017 | Copenhagen U19 | Copenhagen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FCK Youth | Copenhagen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2015 | B1903 U19 | FCK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.