Kevin De Bruyne
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin De Bruyne's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-6.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (1169 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 95th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -68% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1169 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1618
- Opponent strength
- 1461
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €4.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; changed club; team strength down (-130 Elo); league level down (-108 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -66% (IQR -73% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1169 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | AM | 18 | 1169 | 34% | 5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 1461 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 28 | 1705 | 50% | 4 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.30 | 1538 | 1749 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 18 | 1228 | 36% | 4 | 10 | 1.03 | 0.36 | 1562 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 32 | 2425 | 71% | 7 | 18 | 0.93 | 0.41 | 1549 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 30 | 2206 | 65% | 15 | 8 | 0.94 | 0.41 | 1574 | 1866 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 25 | 2001 | 59% | 6 | 12 | 0.81 | 0.42 | 1559 | 1883 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 35 | 2800 | 82% | 13 | 20 | 1.06 | 0.51 | 1582 | 1848 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 19 | 974 | 28% | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.15 | 1506 | 1924 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 37 | 3085 | 90% | 8 | 16 | 0.70 | 0.34 | 1528 | 1831 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 36 | 2884 | 84% | 6 | 19 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 1536 | 1713 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 25 | 2003 | 59% | 7 | 9 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 1522 | 1683 | 1.08 |
| 2015/16 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | LW | 2 | 165 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1484 | 1575 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 34 | 3051 | 100% | 10 | 21 | 0.91 | 0.54 | 1524 | 1666 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 16 | 1419 | 46% | 3 | 6 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 1562 | 1580 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 3 | 132 | 4% | 0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 1600 | 1747 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | AM | 33 | 2966 | 97% | 10 | 9 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 1440 | 1446 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 3 | 245 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 3 | 191 | 0 | 2 | 1638 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 397 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 288 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 294 | 0 | 5 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 2 | 202 | 2 | 2 | 1691 |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1726 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 722 | 2 | 7 | 1711 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 330 | 1 | 4 | — |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 735 | 2 | 3 | 1699 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 224 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 669 | 3 | 4 | 1656 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 103 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 7 | 574 | 2 | 2 | 1650 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 2 | 161 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1928 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 4 | 248 | 0 | 4 | 1653 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 242 | 2 | 4 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 8 | 667 | 1 | 4 | 1690 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 3 | 129 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 539 | 1 | 1 | 1709 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 374 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Manchester City | 1 | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1457 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 711 | 3 | 0 | 1757 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1793 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 29 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 981 | 5 | 5 | 1562 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georginio Wijnaldum Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ander Herrera Ligue 1 · 2022 | 33 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| David Silva Laliga · 2021 | 35 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Scott Parker Premier League · 2013 | 33 | €8.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Spinazzola Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Ivan Rakitic Laliga · 2023 | 35 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Christian Eriksen Premier League · 2024 | 32 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marco Reus Bundesliga · 2024 | 35 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Man City | Napoli | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Aug 2015 | Wolfsburg | Man City | €76.0M | €45.0M |
| 18 Jan 2014 | Chelsea | Wolfsburg | €22.0M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Werder Bremen | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 2 Aug 2012 | Chelsea | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Genk | Chelsea | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Feb 2012 | Chelsea | Genk | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 31 Jan 2012 | Genk | Chelsea | €8.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2008 | KRC Genk U19 | Genk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | KRC Genk U17 | KRC Genk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | KRC Genk Youth | KRC Genk U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | KAA Gent Youth | KRC Genk Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.