Promise David
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Promise David's performance-implied value at EUR 4.7M-12.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.8M-23.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.3M-29.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.86x the positional average in the league (1498 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.0M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1498 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.66
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1359
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.3M – €29.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -59% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1498 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 24 | 1498 | 55% | 9 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.44 | 1359 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 24 | 1383 | 51% | 11 | 4 | 0.98 | 0.56 | 1375 | 1545 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 7 | 369 | 2 | 0 | 1703 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Canada | 2 | 44 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1604 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitinha Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Bernard Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Tino Kadewere Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €13.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Willian Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| José Izquierdo Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Taison Premier Liga · 2013 | 25 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Roman Zozulya Premier Liga · 2014 | 25 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Vincent Aboubakar Liga Portugal · 2018 | 26 | €18.0M | €5.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Kalju FC | Union SG | €600k | €300k |
| 13 Feb 2023 | Sirens FC | Kalju FC | €25k | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Valletta | Sirens FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 7 Jan 2022 | Tulsa | Valletta | Free / loan | €10k |
| 28 Apr 2021 | NK Trnje Zagreb | Tulsa | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Oct 2019 | Vaughan Azzurri | NK Trnje Zagreb | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | TFC Academy | Vaughan Azzurri | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.