Marko Sapuga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marko Sapuga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (778 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €367k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 778 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1149
- Opponent strength
- 1164
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €267k – €895k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -5% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 778 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 9 | 492 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1164 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 9 | 286 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1114 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 1 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1119 | 1199 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1247 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 18 | 1585 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1275 | 1218 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 4 | 312 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 1344 | 1235 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1278 | 1231 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gallacher Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Assane Dioussé Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.1M | €900k | flat |
| Rahmetullah Berisbek Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Kanellopoulos Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Nathan Moriah-Welsh Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €300k | €325k | flat |
| Hyeok-kyu Kwon Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €750k | €1.0M | rose |
| Teddy Jenks Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €275k | €275k | flat |
| Giannis Bouzoukis Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €450k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Rukh Lviv | Karpaty Lviv | €200k | €300k |
| 1 Oct 2021 | Rukh Lviv U19 | Rukh Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Sept 2020 | UFK Lviv | Rukh Lviv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.