Andrusw Araujo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andrusw Araujo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (2171 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.1M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2171 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1219
- Opponent strength
- 1182
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €675k – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -32% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 2171 | 80% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1182 | 1219 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rig | 2 | 176 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cochrane Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Yevgeniy Pastukh Premier Liga · 2024 | 20 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Artem Chelyadin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Malachi Boateng Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Keanu Baccus Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €650k | €700k | flat |
| Matthew Smith Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Kévin Soni Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Iago Siqueira Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Rayo Zuliano | Kryvbas | €250k | €600k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Zulia FC U20 | Rayo Zuliano | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.