Hugo Sotelo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Sotelo's performance-implied value at EUR 4.4M-10.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-8.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-10.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1342 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 73
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.9M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1342 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €10.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +50% (IQR -35% to +181%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1342 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 20 | 1342 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1482 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 24 | 1256 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1551 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 17 | 718 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 1465 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 1 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1396 | 1441 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1783 | 1535 | 1.10 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 134 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 7 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 1520 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 199 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soner Aydoğdu Super Lig · 2013 | 22 | €4.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nick Woltemade Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Marcelo Brozović Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €8.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Danilo Cataldi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Bundesliga · 2016 | 21 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Sapeta Premier Liga · 2013 | 24 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Emmanuel Badu Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.7M | rose |
| Nico González Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Celta Fortuna | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.