Alan Minda
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alan Minda's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (969 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.0M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -26% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 969 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1357
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.4M
Trajectory drivers: role change RW -> ST; relative output up 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -68% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 969 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 17 | 969 | 36% | 3 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 1357 | 1325 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 26 | 1306 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 1373 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 28 | 1513 | 56% | 7 | 6 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 1367 | 1394 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ecuador | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Cercle Brugge | 2 | 87 | 1 | 2 | 1358 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Singh Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €2.4M | €1.5M | fell |
| Erkan Kas Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Kaj Sierhuis Eredivisie · 2020 | 22 | €2.7M | €2.3M | flat |
| Matija Frigan Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Valentín Viola Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €2.5M | €650k | fell |
| Kyan Vaesen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Aziz Yakubu Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Osame Sahraoui Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | Cercle Brugge | Atlético-MG | €7.0M | €3.0M |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Independiente | Cercle Brugge | €2.0M | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Independiente B | Independiente | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Ind. Jrs. | Independiente B | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Mar 2020 | Independiente B | Ind. Jrs. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | IDV U20 | Independiente B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.