Osame Sahraoui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Osame Sahraoui's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-10.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-11.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-12.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (495 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 59.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.6M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 495 (16% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €12.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -45% to +53%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 495 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LW | 18 | 495 | 16% | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 1464 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | LW | 30 | 1285 | 42% | 3 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 1424 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 32 | 2473 | 81% | 8 | 8 | 0.58 | 0.60 | 1359 | 1222 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 15 | 1120 | 37% | 1 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 1358 | 1306 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 5 | 286 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 9 | 455 | 2 | 3 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1587 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper Dolberg Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €7.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Jérémie Boga Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Khouma Babacar Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Paul-Georges Ntep Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €4.0M | €475k | fell |
| Jürgen Locadia Bundesliga · 2020 | 27 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Serhou Guirassy Ligue 1 · 2022 | 26 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Amin Younes Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Luiz Araújo Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2024 | Heerenveen | Lille | €8.0M | €8.5M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Vålerenga | Heerenveen | €2.6M | €2.0M |
| 15 May 2019 | Vålerenga II | Vålerenga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Vålerenga Yth. | Vålerenga II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.