Chissumba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Chissumba's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-9.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.57x the positional average in the league (1510 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1510 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1277
- Opponent strength
- 1313
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €9.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-202 Elo); role change LB -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -38% to +56%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1510 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | LM | 19 | 1510 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1313 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | LB | 16 | 1430 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1346 | 1478 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Tibbling Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Nail Umyarov Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Edouard Michut Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Martim Neto Liga Portugal · 2024 | 21 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Kaio Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Stephen Eustaquio Liga Portugal · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Renato Tapia Eredivisie · 2019 | 24 | €3.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Rúben Pinto Liga Portugal · 2015 | 23 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Alverca | Braga | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 13 Aug 2025 | Braga | Alverca | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 15 Jan 2025 | Braga B | Braga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Braga U19 | Braga B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Braga U17 | Braga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Palmeiras U17 | Braga U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Braga U17 | Palmeiras U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Braga U15 | Braga U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | SC Braga Youth | Braga U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Palmeiras U15 | SC Braga Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | SC Braga Youth | Palmeiras U15 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.