Nilson Angulo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nilson Angulo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.6M-12.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.5M-25.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.5M-25.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (2308 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.7M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2308 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.51
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.44
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1411
- Opponent strength
- 1362
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.5M – €25.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -0% (IQR -21% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 22 | 1902 | 70% | 6 | 7 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 1362 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | LW | 8 | 406 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1600 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 19 | 448 | 17% | 1 | 3 | 0.80 | 0.42 | 1389 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 8 | 42 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 2.14 | 0.31 | 1351 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 6 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1289 | 1432 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 253 | 1 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | 1292 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ecuador | 3 | 139 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 6 | 217 | 1 | 0 | 1580 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 21 | €13.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Nico González Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Moussa Djenepo Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 21 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Justin Kluivert Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Diego Rolán Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €7.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Alexis Flips Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Paul-Georges Ntep Ligue 1 · 2015 | 23 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Juan Iturbe Serie A · 2014 | 21 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | RSC Anderlecht | Sunderland | €17.3M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | LDU Quito | RSC Anderlecht | €1.9M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | LDU Quito B | LDU Quito | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | LDU Quito U20 | LDU Quito B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Dec 2020 | Atlético Kin | LDU Quito U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | LDU Quito U20 | Atlético Kin | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | CSNA U20 | LDU Quito U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | IDV U20 | CSNA U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.