Victor Osimhen

The model rates Victor Osimhen's performance-implied value at EUR 6.0M-35.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 52.2M-86.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 34.1M-66.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1713 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1713 (56% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

1.05

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.48

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.40 (rank 18)

Team strength (Elo)

1501

Opponent strength

1272

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€34.1M – €66.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -54% to +28%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1713 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

53 (ATT)

Relative output kept

79%–133%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

58%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.