Louis Mouton
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Louis Mouton's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.9M-6.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1905 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 41.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.2M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1905 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1306
- Opponent strength
- 1455
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.9M – €6.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; changed club; relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -56% to +172%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 1905 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.29 | 1455 | 1306 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | AM | 24 | 1043 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.37 | 1476 | 1307 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Agudelo Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Giannelli Imbula Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Yassine Benzia Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €5.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Morten Thorsby Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Marshall Munetsi Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €2.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Zaydou Youssouf Ligue 1 · 2022 | 23 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Álex Berenguer Serie A · 2020 | 25 | €4.8M | €12.0M | rose |
| Bongani Zungu Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €3.5M | €1.6M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Saint-Étienne | Angers SCO | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Pau FC | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €600k |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Saint-Étienne | Pau FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Saint-Étienne B | Saint-Étienne | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | St-Étienne U19 | Saint-Étienne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.