Egas Cacintura
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Egas Cacintura's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.40x the positional average in the league (2369 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2369 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1349
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output up 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -57% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | AM | 28 | 2369 | 88% | 9 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 1349 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | Dinamo Makhachkala | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 2127 | 79% | 4 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 1305 | 1233 | 0.55 |
| 2021/22 | FK Ufa | Premier Liga | RM | 27 | 1650 | 61% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1357 | 1235 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 6 | 308 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | Dinamo Makhachkala | 6 | 350 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Ufa | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafał Augustyniak Premier Liga · 2022 | 29 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Marco Ilaimaharitra Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Mateusz Klich Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
| Nuno Coelho Liga Portugal · 2016 | 29 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Kerim Mrabti Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Stef Peeters Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 29 | €1.4M | €900k | fell |
| Rob Schoofs Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 29 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Lucas Vera Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Dinamo Makhach. | Akhmat Grozny | €1.2M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ufa | Dinamo Makhach. | Free / loan | €350k |
| 23 Jul 2021 | Unknown | Ufa | Free / loan | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.