Lennon Miller
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lennon Miller's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-8.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.8M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.4M-20.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (991 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 50.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €12.2M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 991 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.4M – €20.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 50 pts; changed club; team strength up (+321 Elo); league level up (+252 Elo); role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -54% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 991 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 24 | 991 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1483 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | AM | 27 | 2355 | 79% | 2 | 6 | 0.31 | 0.38 | 1236 | 1121 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 20 | 1359 | 46% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1284 | 1179 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 2 | 35 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1579 | 1202 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 101 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saphir Taïder Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Riechedly Bazoer Bundesliga · 2017 | 21 | €10.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Assane Dioussé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Santiago Ascacíbar Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €8.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Yusuf Yazıcı Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| André Almeida Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Arsen Zakharyan Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Angel Gomes Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €7.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Motherwell FC | Udinese | €5.5M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Motherwell B | Motherwell FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Motherwell U18 | Motherwell B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.