Lucas Pires
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Pires's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-11.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1406 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1607
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -41% (IQR -48% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1406 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | LB | 20 | 1406 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1607 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | Cádiz CF | Laliga | LB | 28 | 1527 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1499 | 1377 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Burnley FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Cádiz CF | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Byram Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kenny Tete Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €5.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Tommy Smith Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Fábio Premier League · 2014 | 24 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Bernardo Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Scott McKenna Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Adam Masina Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2024 | Santos | Burnley | €2.3M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Cádiz CF | Santos | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Santos | Cádiz CF | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Santos U20 | Santos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Jul 2021 | Corinthians U20 | Santos U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.