Amar Fatah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amar Fatah's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.47x the positional average in the league (1864 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €416k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1864 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.60
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1178
- Opponent strength
- 1229
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €501k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts; changed club; league level down (-104 Elo); relative output up 57% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -44% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee United FC | Scottish Premiership | LW | 30 | 1864 | 63% | 8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 1229 | 1177 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Willem II Tilburg | Eredivisie | LW | 22 | 693 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 1333 | 1118 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | ESTAC Troyes | Ligue 1 | LW | 1 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1423 | 1247 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee United FC | 2 | 121 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Dundee United FC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1363 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Allmänna Idrottsklubben | 6 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1311 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Bair Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Artem Shulyanskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Frederico Duarte Super League 1 · 2022 | 23 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Toni Silva Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Lazaros Lamprou Super League 1 · 2022 | 25 | €1.0M | €750k | fell |
| Ilya Kvasnytsya Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Benito Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Joseph Paintsil Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Dundee United | Troyes | Free / loan | €800k |
| 14 Jul 2025 | Troyes | Dundee United | Free / loan | €450k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Willem II | Troyes | Free / loan | €450k |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Troyes | Willem II | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lommel SK | Troyes | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Troyes | Lommel SK | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | AIK | Troyes | €4.7M | €350k |
| 19 Nov 2021 | AIK U19 | AIK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | AIK U17 | AIK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | AIK Yth. | AIK U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.